By M. Ray Perryman, PhD, CEO and President Overview The US economy continues to improve, with the pace of recovery linked to the pattern in COVID-19 cases. The virus and measures to slow its spread caused the disappearance of well over 22 million US jobs in just two months back in March and April of […]
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The World Faces a Fifth Wave of Covid-19 Infections, But Deaths Have Not Risen in Concert COVID-19 remains a key variable for the near-term (12-month) global economic and market outlook. We still believe the most likely medium-term (multiyear) base case is for continued progress against the virus and a lessening of its economic impact over […]
Read MoreBy M. Ray Perryman, PhD, CEO and President Overview The $3.5 trillion (or more) federal spending proposal now under consideration has some worthy components, but on the whole it is concerning. It’s too large and expensive, and funding it would cause negative dynamic responses through the economy. Here’s a brief overview. Federal Debt The US […]
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Market Recap A September slump put a slight pause on the global equity bull market, but domestic stocks were still able to manage slight gains for the third quarter finishing up just 0.6%. Results were not as good for overseas stocks, as foreign developed stocks were down 0.4% and emerging market stocks declined 8.1%. The […]
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Overseas Economic Data is Surprisingly Strong The U.S. economy has been very strong this year, but it looks like U.S. GDP peaked in the second quarter and will decelerate going into 2022. However, global GDP growth is likely to strengthen in the second half of the year, driven by accelerating growth outside the United States. […]
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Market Recap Equities around the globe continued to surge in the second quarter. The U.S. and developed international markets led the way, with the U.S. stock market gaining 8.5% and developed international stocks rising 5.7%. Emerging-market stocks trailed in terms of progress on the COVID-19 front and in turn rose by a more modest 4.9%. […]
Read MoreBy M. Ray Perryman, PhD, CEO and President Overview Overview – June saw a strong acceleration in the pace of recovery in the job market. Total nonfarm payroll employment in the US rose by 850,000 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and more than 1.7 million jobs have been gained in the last […]
Read MoreBy M. Ray Perryman, PhD, CEO and President Overview –In March, the US economy added 916,000 jobs, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, education, and construction. The unemployment rate fell to 6.0% and the number of unemployed persons dropped to 9.7 million. Overall, the economy is in a much better place than the lows […]
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Market Recap Global stocks continued to power upward this quarter from their pandemic bear market low on March 23, 2020. The U.S. stock market gained 6.3% and international stocks gained 4.5%. The U.S. stock market is now up an astonishing 80.6%, since the bottom and its best one-year trailing return since the 1930s. Clearly, it […]
Read MoreBy M. Ray Perryman, PhD, CEO and President of The Perryman Group Overview – With COVID-19 vaccination programs ongoing and effective treatments better understood, a new normal should be possible at some point in 2021. There are myriad challenges, but the path is beginning to emerge. Employment – One key issue for 2021 is the […]
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