Market Recap A lot has happened since our year-end letter, with the biggest macro event being Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine. While the human impact has been devastating and tragic, our job here is to focus here on the economic and financial market impact of this event…..and it was a rough first quarter across the […]
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Q1 2022 Was a Historically Challenging Period for Stocks and Bonds Global stocks and US core bonds are both down year to date as markets digest higher inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty As we’ve discussed for some time, rising inflation and rising interest rates creates challenges for both stocks and bonds, and in […]
Read MoreMarket Recap It’s been another remarkable year for domestic stocks, with large-cap U.S. stocks returning a stunning 28.7% as a handful of large-cap tech stocks dominated the market returns as the average stock struggled. This sector meaningfully outperformed U.S. small-cap stocks which were up 14.8%, developed international stocks up 11.3%, and emerging-market stocks down 2.5% […]
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By M. Ray Perryman, PhD, CEO and President Overview The US economy continues to improve, with the pace of recovery linked to the pattern in COVID-19 cases. The virus and measures to slow its spread caused the disappearance of well over 22 million US jobs in just two months back in March and April of […]
Read MoreThe World Faces a Fifth Wave of Covid-19 Infections, But Deaths Have Not Risen in Concert COVID-19 remains a key variable for the near-term (12-month) global economic and market outlook. We still believe the most likely medium-term (multiyear) base case is for continued progress against the virus and a lessening of its economic impact over […]
Read MoreBy M. Ray Perryman, PhD, CEO and President Overview The $3.5 trillion (or more) federal spending proposal now under consideration has some worthy components, but on the whole it is concerning. It’s too large and expensive, and funding it would cause negative dynamic responses through the economy. Here’s a brief overview. Federal Debt The US […]
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Market Recap A September slump put a slight pause on the global equity bull market, but domestic stocks were still able to manage slight gains for the third quarter finishing up just 0.6%. Results were not as good for overseas stocks, as foreign developed stocks were down 0.4% and emerging market stocks declined 8.1%. The […]
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Overseas Economic Data is Surprisingly Strong The U.S. economy has been very strong this year, but it looks like U.S. GDP peaked in the second quarter and will decelerate going into 2022. However, global GDP growth is likely to strengthen in the second half of the year, driven by accelerating growth outside the United States. […]
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Market Recap Equities around the globe continued to surge in the second quarter. The U.S. and developed international markets led the way, with the U.S. stock market gaining 8.5% and developed international stocks rising 5.7%. Emerging-market stocks trailed in terms of progress on the COVID-19 front and in turn rose by a more modest 4.9%. […]
Read MoreBy M. Ray Perryman, PhD, CEO and President Overview Overview – June saw a strong acceleration in the pace of recovery in the job market. Total nonfarm payroll employment in the US rose by 850,000 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and more than 1.7 million jobs have been gained in the last […]
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